Linder Horizon track record
How Horizon's forecasts turned out
Every forecast Horizon made on the site in the last 30 days, checked against the real candle once it closed. Horizon makes a direction call only after a candle has started, and a call made later in the candle knows more. So the figures are split by how far into the candle the call was made, not blended into one number.
Direction calls, by how early they were made
Bullish or bearish calls, scored right when the candle closed on the called side.
| When the call was made | Calls | Right | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| In the first 10% of the candle | 37 | 23 | 62.2% |
| Between 10% and a third of the way in | 609 | 463 | 76.0% |
| Between a third and two thirds | 632 | 540 | 85.4% |
| In the last third of the candle | 368 | 348 | 94.6% |
For comparison, 52.2% of these candles closed up, which is what always guessing "up" would have scored. Horizon made no call on 638 readings where it was not confident enough.
Price range
The close landed inside Horizon's forecast range 79.4% of the time (3,253 of 4,095 forecasts, the one made at the open included). The range is built to hold about 80% of the time, so a figure near 80% means the ranges are honest, not too wide and not too narrow.
By timeframe
Each row is a checkpoint: how long after the candle opened the call was made.
15m candles
| After open | Calls | Right | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| +1 min | 31 | 19 | 61.3% |
| +2 min | 25 | 15 | 60.0% |
| +3 min | 34 | 25 | 73.5% |
| +4 min | 39 | 26 | 66.7% |
| +5 min | 213 | 178 | 83.6% |
| +6 min | 40 | 33 | 82.5% |
| +7 min | 38 | 33 | 86.8% |
| +8 min | 38 | 35 | 92.1% |
| +9 min | 43 | 37 | 86.0% |
| +10 min | 175 | 158 | 90.3% |
| +11 min | 35 | 31 | 88.6% |
| +12 min | 36 | 34 | 94.4% |
| +13 min | 48 | 46 | 95.8% |
| +14 min | 45 | 45 | 100.0% |
Close in range: 83.7% (1,674 / 2,000)
1h candles
| After open | Calls | Right | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| +15 min | 80 | 64 | 80.0% |
| +30 min | 83 | 74 | 89.2% |
| +45 min | 67 | 65 | 97.0% |
Close in range: 75.0% (590 / 787)
4h candles
| After open | Calls | Right | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| +1h | 103 | 65 | 63.1% |
| +2h | 87 | 68 | 78.2% |
| +3h | 49 | 45 | 91.8% |
Close in range: 73.7% (533 / 723)
1d candles
| After open | Calls | Right | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| +4h | 29 | 22 | 75.9% |
| +8h | 38 | 32 | 84.2% |
| +12h | 34 | 28 | 82.4% |
| +16h | 29 | 24 | 82.8% |
| +20h | 22 | 22 | 100.0% |
Close in range: 76.7% (322 / 420)
1w candles
Close in range: 81.2% (134 / 165)
By market
Markets with enough calls to say something. Open one for its own record.
| Market | Calls | Hit rate | Close in range |
|---|---|---|---|
| BNB Crypto | 258 | 82.2% | 85.7% |
| QNT Crypto | 208 | 82.7% | 76.6% |
| BTC Crypto | 73 | 91.8% | 81.1% |
| XRP Crypto | 57 | 89.5% | 85.6% |
| SAND Crypto | 55 | 87.3% | 63.9% |
| SHIB Crypto | 55 | 89.1% | 98.4% |
| ZEC Crypto | 55 | 90.9% | 88.5% |
| RUNE Crypto | 53 | 58.5% | 59.0% |
| XLM Crypto | 50 | 100.0% | 93.3% |
| LSK Crypto | 46 | 82.6% | 66.4% |
| FET Crypto | 41 | 80.5% | 69.7% |
| STRK Crypto | 39 | 74.4% | 65.7% |
| GLMR Crypto | 37 | 75.7% | 65.6% |
| GTC Crypto | 35 | 88.6% | 80.0% |
| PEPE Crypto | 33 | 90.9% | 94.0% |
| TAO Crypto | 33 | 66.7% | 98.5% |
| TRUMP Crypto | 30 | 80.0% | 84.1% |
How this is scored
- A reading is bullish when Horizon gives the candle more than a 65% chance of closing above its open, bearish below 35%, and no call in between.
- A call is right when the candle closed on the called side. A candle that closed exactly at its open counts neither way.
- The forecast made at the open makes no direction call, so it is scored for its price range only.
- The figures cover forecasts that were run on the site, so busy markets weigh more. They are recalculated about once an hour.
Updated: 6 Oct, 16:38 UTC. Past results do not guarantee future results. Linder explains what the data says so you can learn to read it; it is not financial advice, and the decision and the risk stay with you.